Highlights

• • Market implies ~69.4% for home; we estimate 70.5%
• • Positive EV is small (~1.5% ROI) given current odds

Pros

• + Current odds (1.44) are slightly above our break-even requirement (1.418)
• + Conservative estimate avoids overconfidence given missing data

Cons

• - Very limited information on injuries, surface, recent form and H2H increases uncertainty
• - EV margin is small — outcome variance can easily wipe out expected profit in single bets

Details

We find a small value on the home side (O. Selekhmeteva/S. Waltert). The market price of 1.44 implies a win probability of ~69.4%. Given the lack of external data, we apply a conservative uplift to the market probability to account for typical home/pair continuity effects and the possibility that the market contains bookmaker margin. Our estimated true probability is 70.5%, which is slightly above the market-implied probability and therefore produces a small positive expected value at the current decimal price. We acknowledge high uncertainty due to absent injury, form, surface and H2H information and therefore keep the edge modest.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability at 1.44 is ~69.44%; we estimate a conservative 70.5%
• • No external information available (injuries, surface, form, H2H) — we apply a small conservative uplift only
• • Small positive edge driven by comparing our probability to the market-implied probability after accounting for vig