O. Gram/A. Reguer vs N. Bains/R. Bhosale

Highlights

• • Implied market probability for away = ~91.7%
• • Our conservative true probability = 90%, producing negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Conservative, low-assumption approach avoids overestimating the favorite
• + Clear quantitative threshold: need odds ≥ 1.111 for positive EV

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty in the probability estimate
• - Small differences between implied and estimated probabilities make the decision sensitive to assumptions

Details

We have no external form, injury, surface, or H2H data, so we apply a conservative assessment. The market prices the away team as an overwhelming favorite at 1.09 (implied probability ~91.7%). Using conservative assumptions for a favorite of this magnitude, we estimate the away team’s true win probability at 90.0%. At that probability the fair odds would be 1.111; the current market odds of 1.09 are shorter than fair value, producing a negative expected value. Specifically EV = 0.90 * 1.09 - 1 = -0.019 (−1.9% ROI). The home price of 7.0 implies about a 14.3% chance, but we do not see enough discrepancy between our conservative estimate and the market on the favorite to justify taking the short price. Therefore we recommend no bet because available prices do not offer positive EV.

Key factors

• • No external data available — we use conservative baseline assumptions
• • Market heavily favours the away team (1.09) implying ~91.7% probability
• • Conservative estimated true probability (90%) yields fair odds of 1.111, so current price is too short