O. Johansson/A. Shepp vs A. Aubriot/M. Scaglia
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We estimate the home pair's win probability at 62%, which makes the current 1.55 quote slightly over-priced by the market; no value exists at current odds, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~64.5% for home (1.55) vs our 62% estimate
- • Required fair odds for value are ~1.613 — current price is shorter
Pros
- + Home is the market favorite, suggesting they likely have some edge
- + Odds are short, reflecting market consensus — useful if subsequent new information appears
Cons
- - Current price (1.55) does not offer positive expected value under our conservative estimate
- - No independent data on form, surface or injuries to justify raising our probability estimate
Details
We assume limited public information (no recent form, surface or injury data) and therefore apply a conservative estimate. The market prices the home pair at 1.55 (implied ~64.5%). Given the lack of corroborating data and the inherent volatility of doubles, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 62%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.613, which is above the available 1.55 — producing a negative expected value. The available away price (2.32) would require an implied win probability above our estimate for value, which we do not assign. Therefore we do not recommend a side at current prices.
Key factors
- • No independent form/injury/surface data available — we use conservative assumptions
- • Market-implied probability for home (1.55) is ~64.5%, higher than our conservative estimate
- • Doubles matches have higher variance; without confirmation of dominance we lower the favorite edge