O. Poulsen/N. Slavic vs J. Echeverria/I. Forcano

Highlights

• • Estimated home win probability: 52.0%
• • EV at current home odds (1.84): -4.32% (negative)

Pros

• + Market pricing reflects a very tight match — no obvious bias to exploit
• + Conservative estimate prevents overbetting on thin information

Cons

• - Lack of surface, form, injuries, or H2H data increases uncertainty
• - Small edges required for value; current odds are too short to be profitable

Details

No external data available; we make a conservative, neutral assessment. The market prices are close (Home 1.84, Away 1.88). We estimate a slight home edge given home listing and tight market pricing, assigning O. Poulsen/N. Slavic a 52.0% win probability. The implied probability of the home price (1.84) is 54.35% and of the away price (1.88) is 53.19%; after normalizing the book there is essentially an even market. Using our conservative true probability (52.0%), the EV at the current home price (1.84) is negative: EV = 0.52 * 1.84 - 1 = -0.0432 (a -4.32% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds for the home side to be +EV at our estimated probability is 1.923. The away side would require even longer odds to be +EV given our view. Because neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No supplementary data or injury/form info available — conservative neutral baseline
• • Market prices are very close, indicating an evenly matched contest
• • Our modest home advantage estimate (52%) is insufficient to overcome offered odds