Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 60.6% vs our estimate 63.0%
• • EV at current odds ≈ +0.0395 (3.95% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Clear experience and larger career data set favor Simion
• + Market odds only slightly understate Simion’s edge — positive but not overstretched value

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses, raising short-term variance risk
• - Zaytseva’s small sample makes outcome more uncertain and volatile

Details

We view Oana Georgeta Simion as the value side. The market price of 1.65 implies a 60.6% chance (1/1.65). From the provided profiles Simion has a long track record (559-507 over 1,066 matches) and clear experience/samples on clay and hard courts, while Ksenia Zaytseva is early in her career (10-21 in 31 matches) with a much smaller sample and lower overall win rate. Recent form notes losses for both, but the experience gap and broader career consistency favor Simion. We estimate Simion’s true win probability at ~63.0%, which exceeds the market-implied ~60.6%, producing a positive EV at the current home price.

Key factors

• • Large career sample and higher overall win rate for Simion (559-507)
• • Zaytseva is inexperienced with a small sample (31 matches, 10-21)
• • Both players list activity on clay and hard, so surface advantage is limited
• • Recent results show losses for both, increasing uncertainty and variance