Highlights

• • Home career record much stronger than away (559-507 vs 10-22)
• • Market-implied probability underestimates home by ~12 percentage points in our view

Pros

• + Clear experience and win-rate edge for the home player
• + Current price (2.34) comfortably exceeds our break-even decimal (1.818)

Cons

• - Both players have recent losses in challenger events, lowering confidence in form
• - Away player sample is small and noisy, increasing outcome variance

Details

The market strongly favors the away player at 1.541 (implied ~65%), but the underlying profiles point to a significant experience and career-win edge for the home player. Simion's long career and substantially higher career win-rate (559-507 vs 10-22) indicate a higher baseline probability than the market implies. Both players show recent losses, so short-term form is mixed; however, Nahimana's very small career sample and low overall win percentage create uncertainty in her favorite status. Comparing our estimated true probability for Simion (55%) to the market-implied probability (1/2.34 = 42.7%) yields positive expected value at the current home decimal price of 2.34. We used the provided moneyline when calculating EV (odds_used_for_ev = 2.34).

Key factors

• • Large career and experience advantage for the home player
• • Wide disparity in career win-rates (Simion materially higher)
• • Small-sample volatility and recent losses for both players increase uncertainty