Highlights

• • Simion: deep career experience (559-507) and multi-surface exposure
• • Groth: limited match history (10-21), unlikely to justify 8.0 odds as value

Pros

• + Simion is the clear on-paper and experience favorite
• + Match-up and surface exposure both favor the veteran

Cons

• - Current favorite odds (1.07) do not offer positive expected value
• - Underdog price (8.0) overstates Groth's realistic upset chance given limited track record

Details

We estimate Oana Georgeta Simion is the clear favorite given a 559-507 career ledger and vast match experience (1066 matches) versus Georgina Groth's limited sample (31 matches, 10-21). Both players show recent losses in the provided recent-match lines, but the experience and higher career win total strongly favor Simion. The market decimal odds of 1.07 imply a win probability of ~93.5%; our assessed true win probability for Simion is ~92.0%, which makes the current price slightly overpriced for bettors (EV slightly negative). Conversely, the away price of 8.0 implies ~12.5% win probability for Groth, which we consider too generous relative to her demonstrated record and experience gap. Therefore no value exists at current prices.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Simion 1066 matches vs Groth 31 matches
• • Career records: Simion far more wins and sustained career presence
• • Market pricing already heavily favors Simion (1.07), leaving no positive EV