Highlights

• • Babel's career win rate ~52.4% versus Ganz ~32.3%
• • Current market odds undervalue Babel by roughly 6 percentage points versus our estimate

Pros

• + Clear experience/sample-size advantage favoring Babel
• + Current decimal price (2.39) is above our fair threshold (2.083), yielding positive EV

Cons

• - Recent form for both players shows losses; short-term form could negate experience edge
• - Research lacks surface-specific recent results for this exact event, adding uncertainty

Details

We see value on Oceane Babel at 2.39. The market implies a 41.8% chance for Babel (1/2.39) while our model-based read, using only the provided player profiles, assigns Babel a substantially higher win probability. Babel has a long, positive career sample (559-507 in 1,066 matches, career win rate ~52.4%) versus Fiona Ganz's small sample and weaker record (10-21 in 31 matches, win rate ~32.3%). Both players show recent losses in the provided logs, but Babel's extensive experience across surfaces (including clay) and higher career win rate suggest she is underpriced here. At our estimated true probability of 48.0%, the minimum fair decimal odds are ~2.083; the current 2.39 offers positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home side given the available price and the clear experience/sample advantage shown in the research.

Key factors

• • Large experience and higher career win rate for Babel (559-507 over 1,066 matches)
• • Ganz has a very small professional sample (31 matches, 10-21) and lower career win rate
• • Market-implied probability for Babel (41.8%) appears lower than a conservative estimate based on available profiles