Oceane Babel vs Camille Cheli
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices do not present value: at 9.0 for the away player our estimated probability (9%) yields negative EV, so we recommend placing no bet.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability (1/9) = 11.11%; our estimate = 9%
- • EV at current away odds = -0.19 (per 1 unit stake)
Pros
- + Clear market price available to compare against our probability model
- + Conservative estimate avoids chasing extremely short favorite pricing
Cons
- - Limited information on Camille Cheli prevents a more precise probability
- - If unreported factors (injury, retirement, wildcard mismatch) exist, market could be correct and our estimate off
Details
We compare the market prices (home 1.04, away 9.0) to our judgment of true win probabilities. The book implies the away player has ~11.11% chance (1/9), but given the available profile for Oceane Babel showing a long career, a marginally positive baseline level but recent losses and no definitive injury or opponent information, we estimate Camille Cheli's true win probability around 9%. That produces a negative expected value at the available 9.0 price (EV = 0.09*9.0 - 1 = -0.19). The home price is extremely short (implied ~96.15%) and offers no exploitable margin versus our conservative view of the favorite. With the current odds there is no positive EV, so we decline to recommend a side.
Key factors
- • Market implies away win probability ~11.11%; our conservative estimate is ~9%
- • Oceane Babel has extensive career history but recent results in the provided snippet show losses, reducing confidence above near-certain market pricing
- • No opponent profile or injury/withdrawal information provided to justify a market-beating edge