Highlights

• • Market implies Steiner win prob ~84%, but research does not support such a lopsided edge
• • Babel only needs ~22.8% true chance to be +EV at 4.38; we estimate ~40%

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our conservative probability estimate
• + Both players' profiles show similar experience and surfaces, supporting a more balanced matchup

Cons

• - Research is limited and lacks ranking, head-to-head, or injury details that bookmakers may be using
• - Heavy market skew could reflect information not present in the provided sources (e.g., recent injury or withdrawal risk)

Details

We find value on Oceane Babel (home) because the market strongly favors Valentina Steiner at 1.188 (implied win prob ~84.2%) despite the research showing nearly identical career records, similar surface exposure, and no clear recent-form edge for Steiner. With the limited available data both players appear comparable and there is no evidence provided that justifies an 84% win probability for Steiner. Conservatively estimating Babel's true chance at 40% (and Steiner 60%) implies substantial positive edge backing Babel at 4.38. Using that probability the fair decimal threshold for a positive expectation is ~2.50; the current 4.38 quote is well above that, yielding an EV of about +0.752 units per 1 unit staked.

Key factors

• • Research shows near-identical career records and surface experience for both players
• • No clear recent-form or injury information in the provided data to justify Steiner being ~84% favorite
• • Current price (4.38) requires only ~22.8% true probability to be profitable; our conservative estimate is 40%