Highlights

• • Implied probability (63.3%) is slightly lower than our 65% projection
• • Milic's clay-court experience supports a modest advantage

Pros

• + Value exists at current quoted home price vs our probability estimate
• + Player has a solid overall record and clay experience

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈2.8% ROI) and sensitive to probability assumptions
• - No detailed information on Denis Klok or H2H to reduce uncertainty

Details

We estimate Ognjen Milic's true win probability at ~65% based on his overall 22-14 career record, clay-court experience, and recent competitive form on clay. The market price of 1.581 implies ~63.3% (1/1.581 = 0.633). Comparing our 65% estimate to the implied 63.3% shows a small positive edge: EV = 0.65 * 1.581 - 1 ≈ 0.028 (2.8% ROI). The market contains a bookmaker margin (~7%), but at the quoted home price the line offers slight value against our conservative projection. Uncertainties include limited direct H2H and less detail on the opponent, so we remain conservative with probability sizing.

Key factors

• • Milic's career win rate (22-14) and clay experience
• • Market-implied probability (63.3%) slightly below our 65% estimate
• • Limited head-to-head and opponent detail increases uncertainty