Ognjen Milic vs Giuseppe La Vela
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the home player Ognjen Milic at 1.455 — our model estimates a 72% win probability, producing ~4.8% expected value versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~68.7% for Milic; we estimate 72%
- • Positive EV of ~4.8% on the current price
Pros
- + Clearer recent clay-form advantage for Milic
- + Season-long win-rate gap favors Milic
Cons
- - Small sample sizes and limited head-to-head/contextual data
- - Edge is modest; variance can still produce short-term losses
Details
We find value on Ognjen Milic. The market price of 1.455 implies a probability of ~68.7%, but Milic's season win-rate (25-10, ~71.4%) and recent wins at this same M15 clay event point to a higher true chance. Giuseppe La Vela is competent but has a much more modest overall record (28-24, ~53.8%) and mixed recent results at this venue. Conservatively estimating Milic's true win probability at 72.0% produces a minimum fair price of 1.389; the current 1.455 offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.72 * 1.455 - 1 = +0.048 (4.8% ROI). The market margin is modest, and the edge relies on form and surface alignment rather than head-to-head data, so we treat the pick as a medium-risk value play.
Key factors
- • Milic's superior season win-rate (25-10, ~71%)
- • Milic's recent wins at the same M15 clay event indicate strong clay form
- • La Vela has a more mixed record and inconsistent recent form at this venue