Highlights

• • Home implied probability (59.9%) is below our estimated true probability (62%).
• • Edge is small but positive (≈+0.036 EV); doubles volatility and incomplete opponent data increase uncertainty.

Pros

• + Home duo has stronger documented cumulative results and experience in the provided profiles.
• + Current market price (1.671) offers a measurable, if modest, EV against our probability estimate.

Cons

• - Missing profile/details for Aliona Bolsova reduce confidence in the away-team assessment.
• - Small EV and doubles match variance mean outcomes remain highly stochastic.

Details

We see the bookmaker implying a ~59.9% win chance for the home pairing (1/1.671 = 0.599). Based on the provided player profiles, the home duo (Oksana Selekhmeteva + Simona Waltert) brings substantially more cumulative experience and stronger overall win records than the visible away components; Darja Semenistaja shows a weak individual record (10-21, ~32% win rate) and the Bolsova profile was not provided, leaving the away side uncertain and likely inferior on the supplied evidence. We estimate the home side's true win probability at 62.0%, which creates positive expected value against the current decimal price 1.671 (EV = 0.62*1.671 - 1 ≈ +0.036). The margin is small but positive, so the home moneyline looks like a value bet at available prices. Key caveats: doubles are volatile, missing profile for Bolsova reduces precision, and recent form snippets show mixed recent results for multiple players.

Key factors

• • Home pair combined experience and higher cumulative win rates in supplied profiles
• • Away side contains Darja Semenistaja with a low win rate (10-21), weakening their projected doubles strength
• • Bookmaker price implies ~59.9% for home; our estimate of 62% yields a small positive edge