Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on the away player (Ane Mintegi Del Olmo) at 3.11 because the market overvalues the home player relative to comparable profiles; our estimate gives ~36% win probability producing ~12% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market implies 72.5% for home but profiles look much closer
- • At 3.11 the away price exceeds our required threshold (2.778) for value
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ 11.96%)
- + No reported injuries or surface mismatches to materially change projected probabilities
Cons
- - Underlying data shows both players in poor recent form, increasing variance
- - Research supplied is limited and duplicates player profiles, so uncertainty around hidden factors (fatigue, matchup specifics) remains
Details
We note both players show nearly identical profiles in the provided research (career record 10-21, similar recent form) and there are no injury flags or surface-specific advantages shown. The market prices Selekhmeteva (home) at 1.38 which implies ~72.5% win probability; that looks overstated given the comparable records and poor recent form for both. We estimate Ane Mintegi Del Olmo's true win probability at 36% based on parity in form and lack of distinguishing factors; at the current away price of 3.11 (implied 32.2%) this represents positive expected value. Using p=0.36, EV = 0.36 * 3.11 - 1 = 0.1196 (≈11.96% ROI). We therefore recommend the away side because the market underestimates her chance relative to our modelled probability.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data (10-21)
- • No injury or surface advantage indicated in the research to justify strong favoritism
- • Market-implied probability for home (72.5%) appears overstated versus parity data