Highlights

• • Market implies ~74% for Selekhmeteva; our estimate ~58%
• • Negative EV at current odds (-0.216 per unit)

Pros

• + Selekhmeteva has a positive career record and experience at this level
• + Favorite price is widely available and liquid

Cons

• - Recent results included losses, indicating form concerns
• - Lack of opponent information prevents demonstrating a clear skill gap

Details

We compared the market-implied probability (1 / 1.351 = 74.1%) to our assessment of Oksana Selekhmeteva's chance to win. Selekhmeteva's long-term career win rate (~52%) and the recent losses shown in the match log indicate form that is not convincingly superior; with no data provided on Tara Wuerth to justify a gap large enough to support a 74% market probability, we estimate a true win probability materially below the market. Using a conservative estimated probability of 58%, the current price of 1.351 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.58 * 1.351 - 1 = -0.216), so we do not recommend backing the favorite at available prices.

Key factors

• • Career win-rate around 52% suggests an above-average but not dominant player
• • Recent match results indicate declining form in latest recorded matches
• • No data on the opponent to justify the market-implied 74% probability