Highlights

• • Market prices Selekhmeteva at ~72.5% chance to win
• • Our assessment places her at ~69%, producing a small negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Selekhmeteva has much larger experience and a better career win-loss record
• + Wurth's limited sample (31 matches) and 10-21 record suggest a lower baseline level

Cons

• - Recent form entries provided show losses for both players, indicating possible form uncertainty
• - No head-to-head data or clear surface advantage provided to justify moving our probability above market

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (home 1.38 => 72.46%) to our assessment based on the provided profiles. Selekhmeteva has a much larger career sample and a superior career win rate (559-507) versus Wurth's 10-21 record across 31 matches, which supports Selekhmeteva as the stronger player. However, both players show recent losses in the supplied recent-form lines and there is no head-to-head or clear surface advantage provided. Balancing Selekhmeteva's experience advantage against the recent form signals, we estimate Selekhmeteva's true win probability at 69.0%, below the market-implied 72.5%. At the quoted home price of 1.38, that estimate yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.69 * 1.38 - 1 ≈ -0.048), so there is no value to back Selekhmeteva at current odds. Given the lack of evidence supporting an upside enough to push her true win probability above ~72.5%, we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.38) is ~72.46% which is higher than our estimate
• • Selekhmeteva has far greater experience and a better overall career record
• • Both players show recent losses in the provided recent-form lines and no H2H/surface edge is supplied