Highlights

• • Home implied win probability 70% vs our estimate ~62%
• • Away needs >37.2% true chance to be +EV at 2.69, which we cannot justify from the provided data

Pros

• + Home includes an experienced player (Selekhmeteva) with a solid historical record
• + Home odds reflect favourite status which is logical on surface/form cues

Cons

• - Waltert and Semenistaja's recent records are weak/limited in the provided data, adding variability
• - Critical absence of any research on Aliona Bolsova prevents reliable undervaluation of the away side

Details

The market prices the home pair (Selekhmeteva/Waltert) at 1.429 (implied probability ~70%). We estimate the home pair's true win probability around 62% based on Selekhmeteva's much larger career sample and positive win-rate, combined with Waltert's limited match volume and mixed recent results; the away side contains Darja Semenistaja who has a weak recent singles record (10-21) but we lack any provided data on Aliona Bolsova, increasing uncertainty. Translating our 62% estimate into value vs the market: at 1.429 the bet has negative expected value (EV = 0.62*1.429 - 1 = -0.114). The away side would require a true win probability >37.2% to be +EV at the listed 2.69 price; given the documented weakness of Semenistaja and absence of information on Bolsova in the research, we cannot credibly assign >37% to the away pair. Therefore neither side offers positive expected value against the provided prices.

Key factors

• • Selekhmeteva has a long career record and a materially better win rate than her listed partners
• • Waltert and Semenistaja show limited/poor recent singles records in the research, raising doubles uncertainty
• • No data provided on Aliona Bolsova in the research, which increases model uncertainty and prevents confident backing of the away side