Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anouk Koevermans

Highlights

• • Market implies Koevermans ~30.9% but we estimate ~48%
• • At 3.24 the away line yields ~+0.555 EV per unit

Pros

• + Clear discrepancy between market price and our probability estimate
• + Both players' research does not justify a large favoritism for the home player

Cons

• - Limited data in the provided research (no H2H, surface-specific form for this event)
• - Finals pressure and unlisted contextual factors could swing outcome unpredictably

Details

We see both players' published profiles show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form, with no clear statistical edge for Selekhmeteva. The market, however, prices Selekhmeteva at 1.365 (implied ~73.3%) and Koevermans at 3.24 (implied ~30.9%), leaving an overround of ~4.1%. Given the symmetric data and lack of differentiating factors in the provided research, we estimate the true win probability for Koevermans at 48% (vs. market 30.9%). At decimal 3.24 the expected value is 0.48*3.24 - 1 = +0.555 (55.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal price to break even at our probability is 2.083; the current 3.24 is substantially larger, indicating positive value on the away moneyline despite the public favoring the home player.

Key factors

• • Both players show essentially identical published career records and recent form in the provided data
• • Market heavily favors the home player with implied probability ~73%, which is not supported by the supplied profiles
• • No head-to-head or injury information provided to justify the market gap, creating a value opportunity for the underdog