Highlights

• • Market-priced favorably to the home player (implied 74.3%)
• • Our conservative true-win estimate (~60%) produces a negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Selekhmeteva's long career and experience are positive factors
• + Likely favored on match-up/experience if opponent is lower-tier

Cons

• - Recent match data provided shows losses and form concerns
• - No information on the opponent in the supplied research increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.345, implied ~74.3%) to our assessment and find no value. Selekhmeteva is an experienced player with a long career and a modest overall win rate, but recent results in the provided data show losses and inconsistent form. Without reliable information on Tara Wuerth from the supplied research we must be conservative; given Selekhmeteva's recent form and the uncertainty about the opponent and match conditions, we estimate Selekhmeteva's true win chance materially below the market-implied 74.3% (we estimate ~60%). At the listed 1.345 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.60 * 1.345 - 1 = -0.193), so we do not recommend taking the favorite at current prices. To be profitable on Selekhmeteva we would need at least ~1.667 decimal odds.

Key factors

• • Market implies 74.3% for the favorite; we estimate ~60%
• • Selekhmeteva has extensive experience but recent results in provided data show losses and inconsistency
• • No usable information on Tara Wuerth in the supplied research increases uncertainty