Highlights

• • Selekhmeteva has a much larger career sample and higher win rate
• • Current price (1.63) is marginally favorable vs our probability estimate

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price
• + Experience gap likely decisive in a challenger-level match

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈1.06% ROI) — outcome variance remains high
• - Both players show recent losses; limited recent-form separation

Details

We prefer Oksana Selekhmeteva. Market decimals (1.63) imply a win probability of 1/1.63 = 61.35%. From the provided profiles Selekhmeteva has a long career sample (559-507) and a higher career win rate than Tara Wurth (10-21). Both players have experience on clay and hard, and both show recent losses at similar challenger events, but the experience and substantially larger win sample favor Selekhmeteva. We estimate Selekhmeteva's true win probability at 62.0%, slightly above the market-implied 61.35%, producing a small positive edge. Calculation: EV = 0.62 * 1.63 - 1 = 0.0106 (≈1.06% ROI). Given the narrow edge, this is a low-margin value bet rather than a strong play.

Key factors

• • Experience and larger career sample favor Selekhmeteva (559-507 vs 10-21)
• • Both have clay/hard experience; no clear surface disadvantage indicated
• • Market-implied probability (61.35%) is slightly below our 62% estimate