Olaf Pieczkowski vs Cameron Norrie
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Olaf Pieczkowski at 12.5: our conservative true win probability of 11% produces a positive EV (~+37.5%). This is a higher-risk value play given data limitations.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~8% for Olaf; we estimate ~11%
- • Required fair odds to break even on Olaf are ~9.091 (current 12.5 exceeds that)
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at quoted price (12.5)
- + Both players have hard-court experience and no listed injury concerns
Cons
- - Limited contextual data on event level and opponent strength beyond raw records
- - Underdog wins are high-variance; small-sample noise in recent-match snippets
Details
The market prices Olaf Pieczkowski at 12.5 (implied win probability ~8.0%). Our assessment, based strictly on the provided player profiles, assigns Olaf a materially higher true-win probability because his recorded season win rate (37-23, ~61.7%) is at least comparable to Cameron Norrie (35-27, ~56.5%), both have hard-court experience, and neither profile shows clear injury or form red flags that would justify near-certain market pricing for Norrie. Conservatively we estimate Olaf's true probability at 11.0%, which implies required fair odds of ~9.091. At the quoted 12.5, Olaf offers positive expected value (EV = 0.11*12.5 - 1 = +0.375). We acknowledge sample-size and level-of-event uncertainty, so this is a value-seeking, higher-variance play rather than a certainty.
Key factors
- • Olaf's season win rate (37-23) is slightly higher than Norrie's (35-27) in the provided data
- • Both players have experience on hard courts; no injuries or clear form declines listed
- • Market-implied probability for Olaf (8%) looks too low versus our conservative 11% estimate