Olaf Pieczkowski vs Arthur Fery
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Based on a log-odds conversion of the supplied win rates we estimate Olaf has ~32.5% to win; at 6.00 that price represents clear theoretical value, though uncertainty is high given limited contextual data.
Highlights
- • Estimated Olaf win probability: ~32.5%
- • Current market price (6.00) offers large theoretical edge (EV ≈ +0.95)
Pros
- + Strong perceived value versus the bookmaker price (6.00 vs required ~3.08 to break even)
- + Both players have recent hard-court matches in the provided data, reducing a major surface unknown
Cons
- - Model is based solely on crude win-rate/log-odds inference; no head-to-head, fitness, or in-tournament context provided
- - Arthur's smaller sample but higher win% could reflect true superiority not captured fully by this simple model
Details
We estimate meaningful value on Olaf Pieczkowski at 6.00 based on a simple skill inference from the players' career win rates. Using the provided records (Olaf 37/60 = 61.67%; Arthur 30/39 = 76.92%) we convert win rates to log-odds (skill proxies) and derive a head-to-head probability for Olaf of roughly 32.5%. At that probability the break-even decimal price is ~3.077 (1 / 0.325) but the market is offering 6.00, giving substantial theoretical edge. Calculation: skill_olaf = ln(0.6167/0.3833)=0.476, skill_arthur = ln(0.7692/0.2308)=1.204, diff = 0.728, p_olaf = 1/(1+exp(diff)) ≈ 0.325. EV at current odds = 0.325 * 6.0 - 1 = 0.951 (95.1% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We recognize limitations (small sample sizes, lack of H2H, and limited match context), so while the raw math shows value versus the quoted 6.0, this is conditional on our probability model and the sparse data provided.
Key factors
- • Olaf career win% (37/60 = 61.7%) vs Arthur career win% (30/39 = 76.9%) used to infer relative skill via log-odds
- • Both players have recent activity on hard courts, so surface mismatch risk is limited in the provided data
- • Market strongly favors Arthur (1.12) which implies an extremely high win probability not supported by the simple win-rate-based skill inference