Highlights

• • Estimated home win probability: 52%
• • Require decimal odds ≥1.923 to show positive EV

Pros

• + Conservative, data-light probability avoids overconfidence
• + Clear threshold for value (min_required_decimal_odds) if market odds become available

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to lack of form/injury/H2H/surface information
• - Small assumed edge means only mildly attractive markets would present value

Details

We have no market odds or player form/injury/H2H data from the research feed, so we adopt a conservative, low-confidence fair-price approach. Given only venue (Haren) and player names, we assume a small home advantage and estimate Ole Bredschneijder's true win probability at ~52%. Without available quoted decimal odds we cannot demonstrate positive expected value at current market prices; to be value-driven we require the market to offer at least the min_required_decimal_odds shown below. We therefore recommend no bet until a market price >= min_required_decimal_odds appears or more player-specific information is obtained.

Key factors

• • No market odds provided to compare against our probability estimate
• • Very limited match-specific information (form, surface, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty
• • Small assumed home advantage pushes our estimate marginally above 50%