Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (1.51) = ~66.2%; our estimate = 70%
• • Min acceptable decimal odds for value = 1.429; current 1.51 > min

Pros

• + Stronger recent results and better serve metrics for Prihodko
• + Chazal's recent matches show low first-serve win rates and multiple losses

Cons

• - Both players lack documented grass-court experience in the provided data, increasing outcome uncertainty
• - Edge is modest (EV ~5.7%), so variance could still produce short-term losses

Details

The market price for Oleg Prihodko (1.51 decimal, implied 66.2%) appears slightly undervaluing his chances given the available player data. Prihodko has a stronger overall win-loss record (37-30) and recent match-level stats showing effective first-serve performance in recent wins, while Maxime Chazal has a losing record (22-25) and recent matches with poor first-serve percentages and multiple recent losses. Neither player has extensive recorded grass results in the provided profiles, which raises uncertainty, but the form and service metrics favor Prihodko. We estimate Prihodko's true win probability at 70.0%, higher than the market-implied ~66.2%, producing a positive expected value at the current home price. At our estimate the minimum fair decimal price is 1.429; the available 1.51 therefore offers value (EV = 0.057 per unit).

Key factors

• • Prihodko's superior overall record and recent match-level serving stats
• • Chazal's recent poor form and low 1st-serve effectiveness
• • Both players have limited recorded grass experience, increasing variance