Oleg Prihodko vs Luka Mikrut

Highlights

• • Estimated fair price for Mikrut ~1.613 (62% win prob).
• • Current away price 1.50 produces negative EV (-0.07 for a 1-unit stake).

Pros

• + Clear data advantage in career win rate for Mikrut in the provided research.
• + Both players have recent clay matches so surface familiarity is not a major unknown.

Cons

• - No head-to-head, match-up, or injury detail in the provided data to refine estimates further.
• - Market has already priced the stronger player cheaply, removing value.

Details

We compare the quoted market prices to our estimation of true win probabilities based on the provided profiles. Luka Mikrut has a substantially better career record on the provided sample (48-20 vs 37-30) and recent clay activity in Biella, so we estimate Mikrut is the stronger player on clay here. We estimate Mikrut's true win probability at 62% (decimal fair price ~1.613). The market price for Mikrut is 1.50 (implied probability 66.7%), which is shorter than our fair price and therefore offers negative expected value (EV = 0.62 * 1.50 - 1 = -0.07). Prihodko at 2.50 implies a 40% chance, but our estimated probability for Prihodko is ~38% (complement of Mikrut), so the market marginally overprices Prihodko relative to our view and still offers no positive EV. Because neither side yields positive EV at current widely-available prices, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Luka Mikrut has a markedly stronger overall win-loss record in the provided dataset (48-20 vs 37-30).
• • Both players have clay experience and recent matches listed on clay, but Mikrut has recent Biella activity which suggests familiarity with the event/conditions.
• • Market prices (Mikrut 1.50, Prihodko 2.50) do not present value versus our estimated probabilities; away is too short and home is slightly too long but not enough to be profitable.