Highlights

• • Bookmaker price for Zidansek (2.12) > fair price (2.00 based on our 50% estimate)
• • No clear form/injury advantage to the home player in the supplied research

Pros

• + Modest positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Decision driven by parity in the supplied performance data rather than bias

Cons

• - Edge is small (6% ROI) and sensitive to small errors in probability estimate
• - Limited data depth (no H2H, rankings, or detailed match-level context in the research)

Details

Both players show nearly identical recent records (Oliynykova 10-21, Zidansek 10-22) and both have been playing the same mix of clay and hard courts with recent losses at Challenger events. The market makes the home player (Oliynykova) the favorite at 1.725 (implied ~57.97%), while the away price for Zidansek is 2.12 (implied ~47.17%). Given the lack of distinguishing form, surface or injury information in the research and near-parity in career data, we estimate the true win probability for Zidansek at ~50.0%. That estimate implies a fair decimal price of 2.00; the available 2.12 therefore contains positive expected value. We use the current away odds (2.12) for the EV calculation and find a modest positive edge (EV = 0.06 per unit staked).

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and surfaces played in the provided data
• • No injury or other differentiator reported for either player in the research
• • Current away odds (2.12) exceed our fair-price threshold (2.00) given estimated 50% win chance