Highlights

• • Tina priced at 1.02 implies ~98% win probability, which we judge too high
• • No evidence that Olga at 12.0 is undervalued enough to supply value

Pros

• + Tina is the clear favorite and likely to win more often than an average player
• + Market consensus simplifies risk assessment for punters who prefer favorites

Cons

• - Odds for Tina are too short to offer positive expected value against a realistic win probability
• - Insufficient data on the home player to justify taking the long-shot 12.0 line

Details

We compared the market prices (Away Tina Nadine Smith 1.02, Home Olga Bienzobas Fernandez 12.0) to a realistic assessment of true probabilities based on the available player data. Tina's profile (10-21 on record with recent losses) does not justify an implied win probability of ~98% embedded in 1.02 decimal odds. We estimate Tina's true win probability around 92%, which requires minimum decimal odds of ~1.087 to break even; the current 1.02 is value-negative. The home price of 12.0 (implied ~8.3%) would require Olga to be substantially underpriced relative to Tina for that to offer value, but we have no evidence (form, surface advantage, injury to Tina, or H2H) to support such a high true chance for Olga. Given the information, neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted market prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~98% for Tina at 1.02 which is unrealistically high based on available form
• • Tina's documented recent form (10-21 overall, recent losses) reduces confidence in a near-certain win
• • No supporting data on Olga (injuries, form, H2H) to justify the 12.0 price as mispriced value