Olga Danilova vs Olivia Cela
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value on either side given conservative assumptions; the favorite's price (1.18) is too short relative to our estimated 80% win probability.
Highlights
- • Conservative true probability for Olga Danilova: 80%
- • Current market price of 1.18 produces negative EV against our estimate
Pros
- + Market clearly identifies a strong favorite, simplifying evaluation
- + If additional positive intel emerges on Olga, upside for a later value call
Cons
- - No external data available increases uncertainty
- - Small margin between conservative fair odds and market makes value fragile
Details
We lack external data for form, surface fit, injuries, and head-to-head, so we apply a conservative model. The market price (Olga Danilova 1.18) implies the favorite is very likely to win, but given absent research we conservatively estimate Olga's true win probability at 80%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be 1.25, above the available 1.18, producing a negative expected return. The away price (4.5) would require an implausibly low true probability (<22%) to be mispriced enough to offer value under our conservative assumptions. Therefore we do not find positive expected value at current widely-available odds.
Key factors
- • No external research available (form, injuries, H2H, surface) — we use conservative priors
- • Market heavy favorite (1.18) implies ~85% but we conservatively estimate 80%
- • At our estimate the fair price (1.25) is higher than market, so current odds lack value