Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Janssen (1.13) despite her 10-21 record in the provided data
• • Underdog needs only ~17.9% true chance to be profitable at 5.6; we estimate ~20%

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge versus market-implied probability
• + Large decimal price (5.6) reduces required true probability for value

Cons

• - Very limited information on Olga Molchanova raises estimation risk
• - Janssen could be underpriced by bettors for reasons not present in the supplied data (surface preference, matchup, recent unseen form)

Details

The market prices Chanel Janssen as an overwhelming favorite at 1.13 (implied win probability ~88.5%). Our research shows Janssen's career record is 10-21 (31 total matches noted) with poor recent form, which does not support an 88% true win probability. There is essentially no data provided on Olga Molchanova in the supplied research, which increases uncertainty but also means the market may be overstating Janssen's edge. Conservatively estimating Molchanova's true chance at 20% (0.20) versus the market-implied ~11.5% for the underdog at 5.6 yields positive expected value: EV = 0.20 * 5.6 - 1 = +0.12 (12% ROI). We therefore recommend the home upset at current widely-available price of 5.6 because the required probability for break-even is 17.86% (1/5.6) and our estimated true probability exceeds that threshold. Key caveats: limited information on surface, H2H and injuries increases variance, so this is a value play based on the discrepancy between Janssen's documented win rate and the market-implied probability.

Key factors

• • Market implies Janssen ~88.5% win probability at 1.13 — likely overstated given her 10-21 career record
• • Janssen's documented recent form is weak, lowering her realistic win probability versus a generic opponent
• • Limited data on Olga increases uncertainty but makes a 5.6 price plausible value if true chance >=18%