Highlights

• • Favorite (Crawford) implied probability 64.5% vs our estimate 62%
• • Both sides lack positive EV at available prices

Pros

• + Market has priced Crawford as a clear favorite, reflecting heavier probability for the expected stronger player
• + Surface (outdoor hard) is neutral information — no unexpected variance introduced by surface-specific skills in the research

Cons

• - No form, injury, or head-to-head data provided to justify an edge versus the market
• - Our uncertainty is high, so we cannot confidently claim value at the current prices

Details

We examined the market prices (Oliver Crawford 1.55, Rio Noguchi 2.40) and the limited match data (outdoor hard). The market-implied probability for Crawford at 1.55 is ~64.5%. Given the absence of concrete additional information on form, injuries, or H2H in the provided research, we take a conservative stance and estimate Crawford's true win probability at 62% (slightly below the market-implied 64.5%), which produces a small negative edge versus the quoted 1.55. At that estimate the away side is also unattractive versus its required break-even probability (away implied required 41.67%, our estimate for Noguchi would be ~38%). Because neither side shows positive expected value at the supplied prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (Crawford 1.55) is ~64.5%, which exceeds our conservative estimate
• • Surface is outdoor hard — neutral information only, no clear surface advantage given the research provided
• • No form, injury, or H2H details were supplied, increasing uncertainty and lowering conviction