Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (57.97%) > our estimated true probability (52%)
• • Required decimal to break even on our estimate: 1.923 (current 1.725 is too short)

Pros

• + Ojakaar has recent hard-court wins noted in the research
• + Balanced career experience (50% winrate) suggests competitiveness

Cons

• - Limited data on the opponent and no H2H available increases model uncertainty
• - Current market price does not provide positive expected value based on our estimate

Details

We estimate Oliver Ojakaar's true win probability at ~52% based on his 23-23 career record, recent wins on hard courts, and lack of negative injury or form flags in the provided research. The market price (home 1.725) implies a win probability of 57.97% (1/1.725). Because our estimate (52%) is below the implied market probability, the current price does not offer positive expected value. For reference, at our probability the break-even decimal price is 1.923; the offered 1.725 is ~10.4% lower than required to be profitable. Given no data about Fares Zakaria or head-to-head, uncertainty is high and we decline to recommend a side unless odds improve to at least 1.923 or better.

Key factors

• • Ojakaar career winrate ~50% (23-23) with recent wins on hard courts
• • Book market implies 57.97% for home at 1.725, higher than our 52% estimate
• • No data provided on opponent Fares Zakaria or H2H, increasing uncertainty