Highlights

• • Okonkwo: 2-8 career record with recent hard-court losses
• • Sasha at 1.75 offers positive EV if true win chance ≈70%

Pros

• + Material positive EV at current away price (≈22.5% ROI)
• + Clear qualitative mismatch: opponent's poor form and short career suggest lower true probability for home

Cons

• - Limited available data on Sasha Colleu increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - Small-sample career data for Okonkwo can produce high variance—single-match upsets remain possible

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our assessment. The market prices Sasha Colleu at 1.75 (implied ~57.1%) and Oliver Okonkwo at 1.98 (implied ~50.5%). Okonkwo's available performance record is poor (2-8 overall, recent straight losses on hard courts) and he has a very short, inconsistent career track record, suggesting his true chance here is well below the market-implied value for the home side and that Sasha is a clear class edge. We estimate Sasha's true win probability at 70% (0.70). At the quoted away price of 1.75 (odds used for EV = 1.75), that implies EV = 0.70*1.75 - 1 = +0.225 (22.5% ROI per unit), which is materially positive. Given the mismatch between Okonkwo's form/inexperience and the market price, the away side represents value at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Oliver Okonkwo has a 2-8 career record and multiple recent losses on hard courts
• • Market price (Sasha 1.75) implies ~57% while we estimate Sasha ~70% given opponent form and experience gap
• • Short/inconsistent career of Okonkwo increases variance and likelihood of being overvalued by market for home side