Highlights

• • Crawford: strong career win-rate and grass experience
• • Market undervalues Crawford versus our model (implied 83.3% vs our 88%)

Pros

• + Clear surface and performance edge
• + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds

Cons

• - Market margin is small; returns are modest on a per-unit stake
• - Tennis upsets can occur on any given day, so short-priced favourites still carry upset risk

Details

We estimate clear value on Oliver Crawford. His career record (62-22 across 84 matches) is substantially stronger than Linang Xiao's (19-23 across 42 matches). Crucially Crawford has recorded matches on grass while Xiao's recorded surfaces are clay and hard, giving Crawford a surface-experience edge. Xiao's recent form shows multiple losses, while Crawford's overall win rate and volume indicate higher reliability. At the current market decimal of 1.20 for Crawford, our estimated true win probability (0.88) implies positive expected value (EV = 0.88*1.20 - 1 = +0.056). The market is pricing Crawford as a ~83.3% implied probability (1/1.20 = 0.833), which is below our estimate of 88%, creating value for the home side.

Key factors

• • Large disparity in career records and match volume (Crawford 62-22 vs Xiao 19-23)
• • Surface advantage: Crawford has grass experience; Xiao has no recorded grass matches in the provided data
• • Recent form favors Crawford (Xiao showing recent losses) and market-implied probability (83.3%) underestimates Crawford vs our 88% estimate