Highlights

• • Market implies ~33% chance for away at 3.0 while our estimate is ~60%
• • EV at current odds is strongly positive (≈+0.80 per unit)

Pros

• + Large gap between our estimated probability and market-implied probability
• + Okonkwo's recent hard-court losses provide objective reason to downgrade the favorite

Cons

• - Opponent-specific data (Hanamichi) is not provided in the research, increasing uncertainty
• - Small sample size for Okonkwo's career (10 matches) makes probability estimates less stable

Details

We find clear value on the away side. The market prices Oliver Okonkwo as a heavy favorite at 1.35 (implied ~74.1%), but Okonkwo's published form is poor (career 2-8 with multiple recent losses on hard courts), which is inconsistent with a 74% true win probability. There is no research evidence provided that the opponent is markedly inferior, so the market favorite status looks mispriced. Conservatively adjusting for Okonkwo's weak form and recent hard-court losses, we estimate the away player (Hanamichi Carvajal Suazo) has a ~60% chance to win. At the available decimal price of 3.0 (implied ~33.3%), this is a large positive edge: EV = 0.60 * 3.0 - 1 = 0.80 (80% ROI per unit staked). We therefore recommend taking the away moneyline only because the estimated true probability materially exceeds the market-implied probability; this recommendation assumes no late-breaking injuries or conditions that would reverse the form evidence.

Key factors

• • Okonkwo's documented career record is 2-8, indicating clear form weakness
• • Recent losses documented on hard courts — the match surface listed in research matches Okonkwo's recent losses
• • Market-implied probabilities (home 1.35 => ~74%) sharply contradict player form data, suggesting mispricing