Highlights

• • Olivia Gram's recent form and 10-21 career record underpin a low true win estimate (~30%).
• • At 1.53, Liv Boulard yields ~+7.1% expected value under our probability model.

Pros

• + Clear quantitative weakness in the home player (career record and recent losses).
• + Current away price (1.53) exceeds the min required odds (1.429) for our estimated probability, producing positive EV.

Cons

• - Very limited direct data on Liv Boulard in the provided research increases model uncertainty.
• - Estimates rely on complementing probabilities (no head-to-head or injury info), so outcomes carry variance.

Details

We base our view on Olivia Gram's available profile: a 10-21 career record (31 matches, ~32% career win rate) and a run of recent losses that indicate below-average form. The market prices Olivia at 2.38 (implied ~42.0%) and Liv Boulard at 1.53 (implied ~65.4%). We conservatively estimate Olivia's true win probability at 30% given her weak recent form relative to her career baseline; that implies Liv Boulard's true win probability of ~70%. At the quoted away price 1.53, that equates to positive expected value: EV = 0.70 * 1.53 - 1 = +0.071 (7.1% ROI). Conversely, the home price 2.38 implies ~42% which is substantially higher than our 30% estimate, so the home side looks overvalued. Given limited data on Boulard but clear weakness in Gram's numbers and form, backing the favorite (away) offers value at the current market price.

Key factors

• • Olivia Gram career win rate 10/31 (~32%) with recent string of losses indicating depressed form
• • Market prices: Home 2.38 (implied 42.0%), Away 1.53 (implied 65.4%); our model estimates Away ~70%
• • Limited direct data on Liv Boulard increases uncertainty, but Gram's form makes the favorite reasonably priced for value