Highlights

• • Market implies Visker >95% chance; we estimate ~88%
• • At our estimate, the favorite at 1.05 has negative EV (-0.076 per unit)

Pros

• + Visker has more documented match experience and wins in the research
• + If additional info on the opponent showed severe disadvantage, the underdog could become valuable

Cons

• - Available data is limited and does not support the extreme market pricing
• - Underdog backing (8.5) lacks supporting evidence in provided research

Details

We estimate Niels Visker is a strong favorite but not to the extreme implied by 1.05 (95.2% implied). Based on his available career profile (30-28 record, mixed recent results) and the lack of any concrete data on Oliwier Sterniczuk in the research set, a more realistic true win probability for Visker is ~88%. At that probability the fair price would be ~1.136; the market price of 1.05 produces negative expected value. The underdog price (8.5) looks superficially attractive, but we lack evidence to push his true win probability high enough to justify a back at current odds. Given the information provided, there is no positive EV wager at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market price for Visker (1.05) implies ~95.2% win probability — likely overstated
• • Visker career record 30-28 and mixed recent form do not justify near-certain market pricing
• • No data provided on Oliwier Sterniczuk (unknown baseline), increasing uncertainty