Olle Wallin vs Aziz Ouakaa
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Aziz Ouakaa at 4.10 because our estimated true probability (28%) implies positive EV (approx +0.148 per unit staked); the market overprices Wallin as a heavy favorite.
Highlights
- • Market implies home win ~80.7%; our estimate ~72% — favorite looks over-priced
- • Underdog Ouakaa at 4.10 meets the min-required odds threshold (3.571) for value
Pros
- + Positive expected value at widely available current odds (4.10)
- + Clear quantitative gap between market-implied and our assessed probabilities
Cons
- - Our projection depends on limited recent-form details and no head-to-head data
- - Underdog tennis bets carry higher variance and match-specific factors (serve, conditions) can swing outcomes
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities (home 1.24 => 80.65%, away 4.10 => 24.39%) to our assessment. Based on the provided player records and recent results, Olle Wallin has a stronger overall win-rate (44-24) versus Aziz Ouakaa (35-28), but the market price for Wallin appears over-inflated given mixed recent form for both and neutral surface history. We estimate Wallin's true win probability at 72% (implying Ouakaa 28%). That implies the away player is priced too generously: at 4.10 decimal, Ouakaa offers positive expected value (EV = 0.28 * 4.10 - 1 = 0.148). By contrast, backing Wallin at 1.24 yields negative EV (0.72 * 1.24 - 1 = -0.107). Therefore we recommend betting Aziz Ouakaa because the current market odds exceed our min-required fair odds for value.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probabilities show the home favorite is priced at ~80.7%, which we judge too high
- • Career records favor Wallin but recent form appears mixed for both players on hard/clay
- • Lack of injury reports and neutral surface history reduces volatility, improving reliability of our probability estimate