Olle Wallin vs Moez Echargui
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see small positive value on Moez Echargui at 1.33 — his stronger win record justifies a ~78% true probability, producing ~3.7% ROI at current prices.
Highlights
- • Echargui's career win rate (~77.8%) exceeds market-implied probability
- • Current price 1.33 yields a modest positive expected value under our estimate
Pros
- + Statistically stronger player across provided records and recent matches
- + Price is widely available and converts to a positive EV versus our conservative probability
Cons
- - Edge is small (~3.7% ROI) — sensitive to estimation error
- - Limited head-to-head/contextual detail in the provided research increases uncertainty
Details
We find value on Moez Echargui (away). The market price of 1.33 implies a win probability of ~75.2%. Echargui's career win rate (56-16, ~77.8%) is materially higher than Olle Wallin's (44-24, ~64.7%), and both players have activity on hard and clay so surface does not materially penalize Echargui. Recent form shows Echargui maintaining a higher long-term win rate and deeper consistency; there are no injury flags in the provided data. Conservatively adjusting the raw career win rate for match-to-match variance and the fact this is a head-to-head single match, we estimate Echargui's true win probability at 78%. At decimal 1.33 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.78*1.33 - 1 ≈ +0.037), so the current price offers a small but real edge. We do not recommend backing the home player at 3.10 because his implied chance (32.3%) is higher than our estimate for him and Echargui's relative strength makes the higher home price unlikely to be fair value.
Key factors
- • Clearer long-term edge in win rate: Echargui 56-16 (~77.8%) vs Wallin 44-24 (~64.7%)
- • Both players have matches on hard and clay; surface split does not favor Wallin strongly
- • No injury information or other negative indicators for Echargui in the provided research