Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability 56.8%; our estimate 62%
• • Positive EV of ~0.091 per 1 unit stake at 1.76

Pros

• + Clear discrepancy between implied and our estimated probability
• + Lancelot's match history and recent losses support backing the away player

Cons

• - Limited direct information on Hena Cehajic increases uncertainty
• - Unknown surface and match conditions could reduce the edge

Details

We estimate Hena Cehajic is the stronger pick based on Olympe Lancelot's weak career record (10-21) and poor recent form, while the market currently prices Hena at 1.76 (implied ~56.8%). Given Lancelot's sub-35% career win rate and multiple recent losses, we assign Hena a true win probability of 62%. That implies fair odds of ~1.613; the offered 1.76 contains value. Comparing probabilities: bookmaker-implied 56.8% vs our 62% estimate yields positive expected value (EV = 0.62*1.76 - 1 = 0.0912). We acknowledge uncertainty from limited opponent-specific data and unknown surface, but the margin is sufficient to recommend the away side at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Olympe Lancelot career record 10-21 indicates consistently lower win rate (~32%)
• • Recent form shows multiple losses and limited recent success
• • Bookmaker prices favor the away player but not by as large a margin as our assessment
• • Surface and direct H2H are unknown, increasing model uncertainty