Highlights

• • Jasika's documented win rate is higher in the provided profiles
• • Current price 2.55 implies odds below our estimated fair probability

Pros

• + Positive expected value at available decimal odds
• + Recent hard-court activity for both players reduces surface uncertainty

Cons

• - Profiles show limited and potentially noisy sample data; uncertainty around form and fitness
• - Market favorite Tomic likely has unobserved factors (experience/ranking) not fully captured here

Details

We view Omar Jasika as undervalued by the market. The quoted moneyline implies a 39.2% win probability for Jasika (1/2.55). From the provided profiles Jasika has a stronger win-loss rate over the documented span (45-26 vs Tomic's 45-35) and both players have recent hard-court activity in Shanghai, which reduces surface-based edge for Tomic. Given similar recent match patterns but a clear gap in documented win percentage in favor of Jasika, we estimate Jasika's true win probability at ~44.0%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 39.2%, producing positive expected value at the current 2.55 price. This view accounts for limited sample noise and the challenger-level context reflected in the profiles, so we treat the recommendation as a medium-risk value play.

Key factors

• • Jasika's stronger documented win-loss record in the provided data (45-26) versus Tomic (45-35)
• • Both players have recent hard-court activity in Shanghai, neutralizing surface advantage
• • Market heavily favors Tomic (1.49) — potential overpricing relative to documented form