Onyu Choi/M. Nakashima vs N. Kawaguchi/Dabin Kim

Highlights

• • Away implied probability (1.06) is ~94%, which seems overstated given provided player data
• • Home at 9.0 offers positive EV if true win probability ≥~11.11%; our conservative estimate of 15% yields a sizeable edge

Pros

• + Large market mispricing creates substantial upside if the home team pulls an upset
• + Simple, transparent math: current odds comfortably exceed the min required odds (6.667) for our probability

Cons

• - High uncertainty from missing data on partners, head-to-head, and match-specific conditions
• - Heavy favorite (1.06) could reflect insider knowledge or market forces not present in the provided research, making the bet risky

Details

The market prices the away side at 1.06 (implied win probability ~94.3%), leaving the home side at 9.0 (implied ~11.11%). From the available research both Onyu Choi and Dabin Kim have similar weak singles records (10-21) and recent form shows multiple recent losses; there is no evidence in the provided data that the away pairing is overwhelmingly superior to justify a 94% win probability. Given the scarcity of data on the partners and the observed symmetry in the provided player profiles, we conservatively estimate the true chance of the home team winning at ~15%. At the current home decimal price of 9.0 this yields EV = 0.15 * 9.0 - 1 = +0.35 (35% ROI on a 1-unit stake), which represents positive value versus the market. We note substantial uncertainty (limited partner/H2H/surface specifics) so this is a high-variance value play rather than a low-risk certainty.

Key factors

• • Market implies away win probability (~94%) that is not supported by the limited player profiles provided
• • Both named players (Choi and Kim) have similar 10-21 records and recent losses — little evidence of dominance by the away pairing
• • Significant information gaps (partners, H2H, full injury/surface context) increase uncertainty but also suggest the market price may be driven by other forces, creating value