Oregon DucksVSIndiana Hoosiers

Summary: No value at current prices: Oregon is slightly overbet by the market relative to our 70% win estimate, producing negative EV at 1.34.

Key claims

• • Match: Oregon Ducks vs Indiana Hoosiers.
• • Market odds — home: 1.34, away: 3.2.
• • We estimate Oregon to have a ~70% chance to win (p=0.70).
• • The market moneyline of 1.34 implies a 74.6% probability, which prices Oregon more highly than our conservative model.
• • EV calculation on the home line: EV = 0.70 * 1.34 - 1 = -0.062 (approximately -6.2% ROI)
• • On the away side, the market decimal 3.20 implies ~31.25% while our implied Indiana win probability is ~30%
• • To be profitable we'd need at least 1.429 on Oregon (or substantially higher on Indiana) given our estimates.
• • Required minimum decimal for a positive EV on Oregon is ~1.429 (current 1.34 is too short)
• • If lines drift to 1.43+ on Oregon or 3.4+ on Indiana, value could appear
• • We lack up-to-date injury and lineup information, increasing forecast uncertainty
• • No value at current prices: Oregon is slightly overbet by the market relative to our 70% win estimate, producing negative EV at 1.34.
• • We decline to recommend a side.