Highlights

• • Market implies ~65.7% for Gorska despite a ~32% recorded win rate in the provided profile
• • Estimated home win probability (67%) produces EV ≈ +0.568 at current home odds

Pros

• + Large gap between market-implied probability and our conservative true-probability estimate
• + Recent form data for the favorite is weak and on relevant surfaces

Cons

• - Research includes only Gorska's profile; Oriana's form/record is not provided, adding uncertainty
• - Single-data-source reliance increases model risk if unknown contextual factors favor the market price

Details

We find value on the home player (Oriana Gniewkowska) because the market currently prices the away favorite Daria Gorska at 1.521 (implied win prob ~65.7%), which is inconsistent with the available form data. Gorska's career record in the provided profile is 10-21 (~32% career win rate) and her recent matches include straight losses on hard around early September 2025. With no positive evidence in the research that Gorska has a markedly better matchup edge, we conservatively estimate Gorska's true win probability at ~33%, implying Oriana's win probability ~67%. At the listed home price of 2.34 (implied 42.7%), that yields clear positive expected value: EV = 0.67 * 2.34 - 1 = 0.568 (≈56.8% ROI). The market therefore appears to be overvaluing Gorska by a large margin and underpricing Oriana, creating a strong value opportunity to back the home player at current odds.

Key factors

• • Gorska's provided career win rate is low (10-21 ≈ 32%), which contradicts the market-implied favoritism
• • Recent listed results show consecutive losses on hard courts in early Sept 2025, indicating poor current form on surface types she plays
• • Market odds (away 1.521) imply ~66% for Gorska; our conservative true estimate (~33%) makes the home price (2.34) significantly mispriced