Oriana Gniewkowska vs Gina Feistel
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market heavily favors Gina at 1.13 but research shows a poor career record and recent losses; the price offers no value versus our conservative 55% win estimate, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Gina's career win rate (~32%) and recent losses conflict with market-implied 88.5% probability
- • Required odds for value on Gina (given our 55% estimate) are ~1.818 — far above the offered 1.13
Pros
- + Market strongly favors an experienced player (Gina), which typically reflects ranking/form advantage
- + If additional insider info on Oriana indicated she is a complete novice, the market price might be justified
Cons
- - Available research shows Gina's weak overall record and recent losses, undermining the 1.13 price
- - No information on the opponent prevents accurate upward adjustment of Gina's true probability to match market odds
Details
We compare the market moneyline (Gina Feistel 1.13, Oriana Gniewkowska 5.4) to our estimate of true win probabilities. Research-only data for this match includes Gina Feistel's career record (10-21, 31 matches) and limited recent-form snippets showing multiple recent losses; there is no data on Oriana Gniewkowska to justify a large market tilt. Gina's career win rate (~32%) and visible recent losses do not support the market-implied probability of ~88.5% for Gina. Even allowing for reasonable upgrades because this is a local Radom event (where the market may favor the better-known player), we estimate Gina's true win probability around 55%. At the quoted decimal 1.13 this produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.55 * 1.13 - 1 = -0.379). To be profitable on Gina at the 55% probability we'd need minimum decimal odds of 1.818; the current 1.13 is far below that. Given the scant information about the home player and the large gap between market odds and our conservative estimate, we cannot identify value on either side with confidence, so we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Gina Feistel career record 10-21 (≈32% career win rate) and recent losses indicate weak form
- • Market implies ~88.5% for Gina (1.13) which is far above what available data supports
- • No available data on Oriana Gniewkowska increases uncertainty and prevents confident revaluation of market odds