Orlando Luz vs Tadeas Paroulek
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the away player (Paroulek) at 1.855: our model gives him a 58% chance, producing ~7.6% ROI versus the market price, though grass inexperience raises risk.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability for away = 53.9%; our estimate = 58%
- • Minimum fair odds for value = 1.724; current odds 1.855 exceed that
Pros
- + Clearer historical performance advantage for Paroulek
- + Current price provides a measurable positive expected value
Cons
- - Both players lack recorded grass-court history, increasing matchup uncertainty
- - Edge is modest (approx 7.6% ROI) and could be eroded by variance
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to our assessment. The sportsbook price of 1.855 on the away player implies a win probability of ~53.9%. Reviewing the available profiles shows Tadeas Paroulek has a considerably stronger overall record (36-22) and more matches played than Orlando Luz (14-15), suggesting a clear quality edge. Both players' documented history is concentrated on clay and hard courts with little-to-no grass data, which raises uncertainty, but there is no evidence of injuries or form collapse for Paroulek. We estimate Paroulek's true win probability at 58.0%, which implies minimum fair odds of 1.724. Since the current price (1.855) is longer than that threshold, it represents positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.076 per unit stake). The edge is modest and tempered by surface uncertainty, but the available odds offer value for backing the away player.
Key factors
- • Paroulek has a stronger overall win-loss record and larger match sample
- • Market-implied probability (53.9%) is lower than our estimated true probability (58%)
- • Both players have little documented grass experience, increasing uncertainty