Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home: ~63.3%; our estimate: 70%
• • Gomez’s 0-2 professional record and recent losses drive the disparity

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the listed price (EV ≈ +0.106)
• + Opponent shows very limited pro results and recent defeats

Cons

• - Very limited available data on Oscar Houille’s current form or injuries
• - Small sample size on Gomez increases uncertainty in any probability estimate

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (home 1.58 -> 63.3%) to our assessment based on the available player information. Gabriel Gomez has just two recorded professional matches (0-2) with recent losses on both clay and hard, indicating limited experience and poor recent form. The market price for Oscar Houille (1.58) already treats him as a clear favorite; given Gomez's scant record and no evidence of an underlying edge, we believe the true win probability for the home player is higher than the market-implied 63.3%. Using a conservative true probability estimate of 70%, the home side offers positive expected value at the current odds (EV = 0.70 * 1.58 - 1 = +0.106). We note uncertainty from missing data on Oscar’s form, injuries, and the match surface, so our estimate is cautious but indicates value at the listed 1.58 price.

Key factors

• • Gabriel Gomez has a 0-2 professional record and recent straight losses, signalling limited form/experience
• • Market price (home 1.58 -> 63.3% implied) appears to understate the favorite’s edge given opponent weakness
• • Lack of detailed data on Oscar Houille and match surface increases uncertainty but available data favors the favorite