Oskar Brostrom Poulsen vs Toufik Sahtali
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on Toufik Sahtali at 1.461 given his superior experience on hard courts and Poulsen's minimal pro record; expected ROI is about 2.3%.
Highlights
- • Sahtali: more matches (22) and proven hard-court experience
- • Poulsen: only 2 pro matches, both losses — limited data and form concerns
Pros
- + Price (1.461) offers a slight value vs our 70% win probability
- + Surface and event familiarity favor Sahtali
Cons
- - Edge is small (≈2.3% ROI) and sensitive to probability estimates
- - Limited direct-form detail and short sample sizes increase uncertainty
Details
The market prices Toufik Sahtali at 1.461 (implied ~68.4%). We rate Sahtali higher than the market baseline because he has substantially more match experience (22 matches, 11-11) and a clear history on hard courts and in Monastir events, while Oskar Brostrom Poulsen has only 2 recorded professional matches (0-2) with recent losses on both clay and hard. There are no injury flags in the provided research. Given surface alignment, match experience disparity, and Poulsen's extremely limited pro track record, we estimate Sahtali's true win probability at 70.0%, which exceeds the market-implied probability. At the available price of 1.461 this produces a small positive edge (EV = 0.70 * 1.461 - 1 ≈ 0.023). The value is modest but present; we recommend the away side only because expected_value > 0 at current odds.
Key factors
- • Sahtali has far more professional matches and a 11-11 record versus Poulsen's 0-2
- • Sahtali's match history is predominantly on hard courts, aligning with the Monastir event surface
- • Poulsen's extremely limited experience and recent straight losses increase upset risk