Oskar Brostrom Poulsen vs Mahmoud Chetouane
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market pricing is implausibly extreme given the limited player data; we cannot find positive value at the quoted prices and therefore recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Bookmaker implies ~99% for home at 1.01 — unlikely given only 2 pro matches on record for him
- • High uncertainty on the opponent means the long price of 18.0 cannot be confidently classified as value from the provided data
Pros
- + If outside information later shows the away player is markedly weak, the away price (18.0) could be high-value
- + Extremely short favorite price protects downside in the rare case heavy favorite actually is overwhelming
Cons
- - Current favorite price (1.01) offers no positive EV under reasonable probability assumptions
- - Insufficient opponent data prevents a defensible overweight on the long underdog at 18.0
Details
We see a highly skewed market price: the home player Oskar Brostrom Poulsen is listed at 1.01 (implied ~99%) while the away player is 18.0. The available player data for Oskar is extremely limited (two recorded pro matches, 0-2) and gives no definitive dominance signal that justifies a ~99% market probability. With no information on Mahmoud Chetouane in the provided research, uncertainty is high. Conservatively estimating Oskar's true win probability at 80% (far below the bookmaker-implied ~99%), a home back at 1.01 produces a negative EV (EV = 0.80*1.01 - 1 = -0.192). The away price (18.0) would offer positive EV only if we believed the away win chance >~5.56%; however, we lack evidence to justify a high enough true probability for the away player to treat 18.0 as fair value. Given the extreme market skew and limited data, we cannot identify a reliable value side from the provided sources, so we recommend not betting on this match at the quoted prices.
Key factors
- • Market is extremely skewed toward home (1.01) which implies ~99% win probability
- • Provided player data for the favorite is minimal (2 recorded matches, 0-2) and does not support such an extreme implied probability
- • No information on the opponent increases uncertainty and prevents a confident counter-estimate that would justify betting the underdog