P. Bakhmutkina/M. Hodzic vs L. De Ezcurra/Maia Sung

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.22) ~82% vs our estimate 75%
• • Best available EV is negative (away EV ≈ -0.025), so skip this market

Pros

• + Favorite likely to win based on market pricing
• + Clear threshold for when value appears (home ≥1.333)

Cons

• - Insufficient external data increases model uncertainty
• - Current prices include bookmaker margin and do not present value

Details

We have no external form, H2H, or injury data, so we adopt a conservative model: the listed home favorite (1.22) is clearly priced as a strong favorite but the market-implied probability (~82%) looks overstated given uncertainty. We estimate the true win probability for P. Bakhmutkina/M. Hodzic at 75% (0.75) —favoring the favorite but allowing a margin for uncertainty—which implies a fair decimal price of 1.333. At the quoted home price (1.22) the expected value is negative (EV = 0.75 * 1.22 - 1 = -0.085). For the away side, using the complementary probability (0.25) yields EV = 0.25 * 3.9 - 1 = -0.025, also negative. Because neither side offers positive expected value at the current widely-available prices, we do not recommend a bet. If traders can obtain home odds ≥ 1.333 or away odds ≥ 4.0 (based on our estimated 25% chance for away) the market would offer non-negative EV; otherwise this matchup should be skipped.

Key factors

• • No external form, injury, or H2H data available — high uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (≈82%) appears overstated vs conservative estimate (75%)
• • Both sides produce negative EV at current quoted odds