P. Harper/J. Monday vs J. Boulais/J K. Trotter

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.50) = ~66.7%; our estimate = 60%
• • Fair minimum price for value = 1.667; current home price 1.50 is beaten by the book

Pros

• + Conservative stance avoids taking negative-EV prices
• + Clear threshold (min_required_decimal_odds) provided if prices move

Cons

• - Decision constrained by lack of data — could miss a genuine edge if hidden info exists
• - Market may be correct and we could be underestimating the home pair slightly

Details

We estimate the home pair P. Harper/J. Monday to hold a modest edge given home status and absence of contrary info, but the market price (home 1.50) implies a ~66.7% chance which is richer than our conservative true probability estimate. We set a conservative estimated_true_probability of 60% to account for unknown surface, form, injuries and lack of H2H data. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.667; the available 1.50 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.6*1.50 - 1 = -0.10). The away price (2.45) implies ~40.8% which would require us to believe the away pair is materially better than our baseline — we have no basis for that. Given the market margin and lack of reliable information, we decline to recommend a side because neither current price offers positive EV versus our conservative probability estimates.

Key factors

• • No reliable public data on form, H2H, or injuries — necessitates conservative probability
• • Book market implies a ~66.7% chance for home at 1.50 (likely contains bookmaker margin)
• • Our conservative estimate (60%) produces a fair price ~1.667, so current home price is too short